In many respects conditions in the Middle East are more propitious for jihadist activism today than they were before the 9/11 attacks. That picture includes what is likely to be a prolonged period of domestic unrest in Egypt and other Arab countries, and an intensifying geostrategic and sectarian rivalry between regional powers – all of which are contributing to the recrudescence of jihadism. Yet Syria is just one piece of a disturbing picture in the Middle East. Should they return to Australia, some will bring with them new military skills and connections with the international jihadist community. A number of these individuals have been fighting with jihadist groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, but also referred to as ISIS). In the last three years at least 120-150 Australians have travelled there to participate in the uprising against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. In the forthcoming 2014 Lowy Institute Poll, 65 per cent of Australians see international terrorism as a critical threat to Australia's security.Īustralian agencies charged with combatting terrorism are naturally preoccupied with events in Syria. Yet terrorism still occupies a prominent place in the national security consciousness of most Australians. It has been three years since the last major conviction in a domestic terrorism case. Osama bin Laden is dead, it has been over a decade since the Bali bombings, and Australian troops have mostly withdrawn from Afghanistan. But the government should be keeping a weather eye on other parts of the Middle East as well. For Australia the immediate focus is, and should be, on individuals returning from Syria. And while the current focus of jihadist groups is on the Middle East, this can, and probably will, change. In many respects the conditions for the creation of extremist movements and ideas in the Middle East are worse today than they were before 9/11. Power struggles between regional powers are exacerbating the instability. New spaces are opening up across the region that can be used by jihadists for training. The political crisis in Egypt is being exploited by extremists and could result in a lengthy period of violent conflict. Syria has become a magnet for foreign fighters, including Australians. The current turmoil in the Middle East is incubating a new generation of jihadists.
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